The Tamil homeland’s falling population – Sri Lanka’s 2024 census

Sri Lanka’s newly released preliminary census figures from 2024 illustrated how the Tamil North-East, particularly the Vanni region, remains the worst-affected part of the island in terms of population loss and stagnation.

According to the “Census of Population and Housing – 2024 Preliminary Report” by Sri Lanka’s Department of Census and Statistics, the three districts that make up the core of the Vanni—Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, and Vavuniya—have some of the lowest population counts, population growth, and density rates in the entire island. 

The figures reflect the devastating impact of the decades-long armed conflict, including the 2009 genocide that unfolded in this region, and the ongoing militarisation that persists to this day.

Mullaitivu recorded the lowest population of any district in the entire island with just 122,542 residents. It was followed by Mannar, with a population of 123,674 and Kilinochchi with a population of 136,434. Vavuniya recorded a population of just 172,257.

The four districts recorded the lowest populations across the whole island, with less than half of the next nearest district which was Trincomalee with 442,465 – another district in the Tamil homeland.

Lagging population growth

The growth rate in the Tamil homeland has also remained stagnant. Vavuniya recorded the lowest population growth rate of any district from 2012 to 2024—just 0.01%. Jaffna, the cultural capital for Eelam Tamils, recorded the next lost growth rate between that period at just 0.14%.

Jaffna and Mannar also had the distinction of being the only two districts on the island to have recorded a negative population growth. The feat occurred from between 1981 and 2012, when the two districts recorded -0.74% and -0.18% growth respectively. This was almost entirely due to mass displacement and state violence. 

Lowest population densities on the island

While areas like Colombo saw population densities rise above 3,500 people per square kilometre, Tamil areas in the North-East remain sparsely populated.

Though Mullaitivu’s recent growth rate was the highest, at 2.23% from 2012 to 2024, the district also has the lowest population density in the entire island, with just 50 people per square kilometre. It is followed by Mannar (66/km²) and Vavuniya (96/km²). Kilinochchi, another site of intense shelling and mass civilian deaths during the final stages of the armed conflict, ranks fifth lowest with 115 people per square kilometre.

Even the three districts of the Eastern Province—Trincomalee, Batticaloa, and Ampara—fall in the lower half of population density rankings, further underscoring the long-lasting demographic impact of militarisation, displacement, and underdevelopment in Tamil-majority areas.

North-East lagging behind

Overall, the Northern Province accounts for just 5.3% of the island’s population, and the Eastern Province 8.2%, despite being home to the island’s Tamils and Muslims. 

These figures are not only the result of underdevelopment but also reflect decades of conflict, mass atrocities, forced displacement, and militarisation.

The devastating toll of the armed conflict and in particular the 2009 genocide, which killed tens of thousands of Tamil civilians and displaced hundreds of thousands more, continues to shape the demographics of the region. The lack of a proper resettlement, continued military occupation, and lack of investment in infrastructure and livelihoods has further deepened the crisis in the Vanni and throughout the Tamil homeland.