As Narendra Modi arrives in Colombo today, the Indian Prime Minister’s visit marks a significant moment in the evolving relations between the two states. A noteworthy defence pact is due to be signed, and plans for a landmark new cross-border electricity grid physically linking Mannar to Tamil Nadu will be unveiled. For New Delhi, this is the latest move in a decades-long ambition to expand its influence on the island. But it is also an opportunity to chart a new and bolder course: one that not only advances its regional interests but finally secures much needed stability and prosperity for the island’s Tamils.
Modi’s arrival comes at a critical time. Sri Lanka is once again in the grip of crisis. The already struggling economy is reeling after the United States slapped crippling new tariffs, a blow that has already sent shockwaves through the island’s industries. As Colombo’s largest export market turns increasingly protectionist, it has little choice but to deepen ties with regional powers. The move by the Trump administration is a marker of how far global politics has shifted. In this new era, where Western dominance is ceding, India may now emerge as a desperate Sri Lanka’s most indispensable partner. And as New Delhi’s influence grows, so too does its leverage.
While India has always sought deeper ties with the island, the agreements that will be inked over the next two days will take that ambition further than almost ever before. The new grid project will tether Sri Lanka’s energy future directly to Tamil Nadu - one of India’s most dynamic and prosperous states. The much awaited power project in Trincomalee will finally get underway. And, possibly most significant of all, will be a new defence pact. Though the details remain scarce, it marks the first time since the disastrous Indian Peace Keeping Force (IKPF) intervention of 1987 that defence co-operation between the two will be formally strategized.
That these deals are being signed under the watch of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, once one of the most stridently anti-India voices in Sri Lankan politics, illustrates just how far things have shifted. Just last year, Dissanayake warned against the very type of integration he is now facilitating. His embrace of closer ties with Delhi signals a dramatic volte-face. Yet, it also raises questions about durability.
The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna’s (JVP) rapid shift has yet to be tested by public or party scrutiny. Its grassroots and cadres, whose politics have been forged in opposition to Indian involvement and to Tamil demands, are unlikely to have changed overnight, despite the economic crisis the island faces. Without a serious ideological reckoning or internal party reform, this new alignment may not last. Should domestic pressures rise, and Trump’s latest tariffs ensure they most certainly will, Sri Lanka’s leaders may seek to retreat from these ties, or weaponise Sinhala nationalist, anti-India sentiment once again.
That is precisely why India must seize the moment and go beyond simply signing deals with Colombo.
India’s strategic ambitions on the island cannot rest solely on these agreements. It must also be about shaping political realities. As we have long argued, all roads run through Tamil Eelam. India’s economic integration with the North-East, where it seeks to invest, connect and expand, will only succeed if matched with political stability and lasting peace for the Tamil people. It is no secret that India’s own interests lie in ensuring that the Tamil homeland is stable, secure and economically integrated with Tamil Nadu and the region beyond. But these interests are incompatible with Colombo’s current approach to occupation, militarisation, land grabs, Sinhala-Buddhist expansionism and a persisting climate of impunity.
These are not just human rights concerns. They are direct impediments to India’s regional aspirations.
This moment, when Sri Lanka is arguably at its most fragile in years, presents an opening for India to make firm headway. New Delhi must press Colombo to demilitarise the Tamil North-East, restore lands to rightful owners, and engage in meaningful political devolution. It must ensure that justice mechanisms for mass atrocities are not quietly shelved. And it must invest in the structural reforms necessary that empowers its Tamil brethren across the Palk Strait. There is a long and chequered history of Sri Lankan leaders making promises and reneging under political pressure. The Indo -Lanka Accord of 1987 is just one of countless examples. For India to avoid repeating this cycle, it must now tie its economic engagement with political conditions.
This is not simply a case of safeguarding Tamil rights. It is about ensuring that investments, energy corridors and regional stability are not left at the mercy of Sinhala nationalist whims or the fragile ambitions of a transient administration. After all, the North-East is where India’s footprint will be most visible and where its long-term presence will be tested. Without peace and political stability there, the cross-border cables and trade routes will be nothing but paper promises.
It is time for New Delhi to seize the moment, cement its influence and demand the political changes required for sustainable peace.